Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Don't trust Islamists with Political Power

Barry Rubin writes in JPost about what Islamists will do if elected to office and what to do about it.

Two key points to keep in mind. First, the factor most likely to moderate larger Islamist groups is their knowing power is beyond their reach. Hamas never challenged the Palestinian leadership because it knew it would be crushed in a civil war. In Jordan and Egypt, Islamist parties take the quota of parliamentary seats permitted them and cause no trouble because they know beating the regime is impossible.

Once they conclude they can win, however, the result will be instability and more militancy.

Finally, the most likely result of any Western belief that power will moderate radical Islamists will be unilateral Western concessions to such groups. They will be given immunity for past terrorist acts, diplomatic backing against the local regimes, money and other benefits in exchange for promises to be good. They will then break these promises, most likely without cost.

Let's not be naive about radical Islamism and make even more problems for the Middle East.

Exactly. And after they break the promises, we will try again to demand promises. They will break these, then we will try again. And so on...

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