They Already Know the Disengagement Will Be a Failure

Arutz Sheva on what the IDF already knows will happen after the pre-emptive surrender.

Official IDF sources predict that the withdrawal from Gaza will lead to Palestinian terrorism and violence worse than the previous intifadas, writes Yediot Acharonot's senior military correspondent.

IDF sources predict that immediately after the disengagement, the ceasefire is expected to end with terrorist attacks in and from Judea and Samaria. Among the threats are mortar and Kassam rockets on Israel's new toll-way Highway 6, as well as other areas in the coastal plain and the Afula area. The "regular" ambush attacks on roads, as well as attacks on army bases and towns in Judea and Samaria, are also expected.

The IDF Central Command is already preparing for the next round of armed conflict, correspondent Alex Fishman writes. It is assumedthat it will begin in September. The preparations are mainly in the form of trying to stop the massive weapons smuggling from Egypt into Gaza, and from there to Judea/Samaria.

The Palestinian terrorists are heavily-armed, Fishman writes: "Despite the successes in discovering arms-smuggling tunnels [between Egypt and Gaza], in the battle between smuggling and thwarting smuggling, the smugglers have won."

According to army estimates, in the eight-month period between July 2004 and February 2005, over 3,000 assault rifles were smuggled into Gaza, as well as 400,000 bullets, 400 pistols, and 600 kilograms of explosives.

In addition, over 180 anti-tank rocket launchers and 5 anti-aircraft rockets are now in the possession of the Palestinian terrorists.

The army recently intercepted a shipment of RPG anti-tank missile launchers at the Shoket Junction near Be'er Sheva, on their way to the Mt. Hevron region. Some 20 such launchers were recovered over the past year – as opposed to an unknown amount that have made their way in. Once the RPG rockets become a common weapon in Judea and Samaria, Fishman writes, "the IDF will no longer enjoy freedom of movement in its jeeps on the roadways, nor will it be able to use jeeps to pursue terrorists and make arrests in the cities... Is it conceivable that the army will only be able to use armed personnel carriers and tanks in Judea and Samaria? And what about the civilian traffic?"

In short, Fishman sums up, "stopping the smuggling has become a matter of national existence. It is liable to spell the difference between a diplomatic agreement and a comprehensive war against the Palestinians."

The Mossad, the police, the Shabak (General Security Service), government offices, and the army have all begun working in various ways to collect intelligence and try to thwart smugglings, and the work is being concentrated in the office of the Operations Commander in the IDF General Staff.

Fishman notes that three attempts have already been made in the Shomron to launch Kassam rockets. Arutz-7 reported that a plot to manufacture deadly Kassam rockets there was thwarted last week with the arrest of eight Islamic Jihad terrorist cell members in Jenin. Earlier in the month, the IDF discovered a Kassam rocket factory near Jenin.