Tuesday, December 07, 2004

Iran and the bomb 2

Overall, I would guess that Israel will not pre-emptively attack Iran over the bomb. From a strategic point of view, it is necessary.
I'm not sure how it can be accomplished tactically.

Key points:
1. Israel faces an existential threat from a nuclear Iran.
2. Former Iranian President Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has said,

"If a day comes when the world of Islam is duly equipped with the arms Israel has in possession [i.e., nuclear weapons], the strategy of colonialism would face a stalemate because application of an atomic bomb would not leave any thing in Israel but the same thing would just produce damages in the Muslim world."

3. A nuclear Iran could blackmail the West into abandoning Israel. In fact, it could prevent any retribution against it for backing terrorism.
4. The Iranian parliament has already called on Iranians to volunteer for suicide squads against the US and Israel.
5. The Islamic world has shown that the MAD [mutually assured destruction] strategy no longer applies.
During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, this same Iranian regime sent thousands of its own schoolchildren - each armed only with a small plastic "key to heaven" - to their deaths in human waves across minefields to clear a path for its adult troops. These schoolchildren were members of the Basij militia, known for its religious zealotry and direct allegiance to the supreme Ayatollah.

Three weeks ago, at a peak of U.S. and European pressure on Iran to modify its nuclear program, Iran's leadership gathered tens of thousands of young Basij militia members together south of Teheran to chant "No to Compromise," "Death to Israel" and "Death to America." The spirit of the human wave attacks is still strong.

If Iran succeeds in acquiring nuclear weapons, this regime that instills hatred in and readily sacrifices its own children, that is so fundamentally hostile to the United States, seems unlikely to hesitate to bring death to the children of America through a nuclear attack on the "Great Satan."

6. Iran learned the lessons from the Israeli bombing of the Iraqi Osirak nuclear plant. (By the way, it was named Tammuz 17. Look that up to see the significance of that day.) Iran's nuclear facilities are alleged to be spread among 100 or more locations. Except by invasion and regime change, how can you take out that many sites from so far away? How deep are these facilities buried? If 20 or 30 feet, you can use bunker busters. What happens if they are 100 or 200 feet underground? They would be very expensive to build, but with Irans petro-cash and commitment, who knows?
7. Iran has also built many of these facilities below residential
neighborhoods for protection.
8. Iran still sees America as the great enemy and plans for its destruction.
Iran's hard-line fundamentalist regime continues to blatantly threaten the United States, which it routinely refers to as "the Great Satan."

In May, on the first day of its new session, Iran's parliament broke into chants of "Death to America." At Iran's annual military parade in September, a long-range missile had draped over it a banner proclaiming, "We will crush America under our feet."

Three different sets of Iranian diplomats at the United Nations have been thrown out of the U.S. in just the last two years for suspiciously photographing infrastructure and transportation sites in New York City. Meanwhile, Iran is working on the Shihab 5 missile, which would be capable of hitting the continental United States.

This radical Iranian regime has a history of following through on its threats to attack the United States. This same regime held 52 US diplomats hostage from late 1979 to early 1981. It was also behind the 1983 suicide bombing by its Hizballah proxies of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon that killed 241 American servicemen.

9. What kind of non-nuclear WMD attack would Israel face in retaliation? It could certainly be launched by Hizbullah or the PLO or another proxy.
10. Over which Islamic countries would Israel fly to Iran for an attack? None will give permission. Israel didn't have it before but did not have to do any in-flight refueling either.
11. See here on Israel's preparations and here.
12. Without regime change (which only the US can probably accomplish), how long until Iran rebuilds this capability again?

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